“Climate change poses real risks to New Yorkers if we continue down our current path,” said David Gahl, director of air and energy programs at Environmental Advocates of New York. “It is essential that our leaders, including the Governor-elect, understand these risks and that the choices we make and the goals we set now will shape the world for years to come.”

The report draws its findings from multiple sources, including climate projections recently released by the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA) that show substantial consequences for New York, including changes in average annual temperatures, extreme heat days, sea level rise, loss of snow cover, and increased frequency of drought patterns. NECIA projects that without significant reductions in climate-altering emissions, New York’s weather will come to resemble that of the states of Georgia and South Carolina by the end of this century.

Under these climate change scenarios, public health will be jeopardized by increases in the number of very hot days leading to heat-related illnesses and death. These conditions will also lead to more high ozone days and thus more problems for New Yorkers with respiratory illnesses such as asthma.

Changes in climate will put New York’s infrastructure and coastal property at risk by rising sea levels and bigger, more destructive storm surges. In New York City, scientists predict that flood events now expected every 100 years could occur once every 40 years by the 2020s, once every 20 years by the 2050s, and once every five years by the 2080s, significantly affecting the state’s insurance industry. Scientists also predict that lower water levels in the Great Lakes caused by climate change will place greater strain on New York’s drinking water systems and could result in a corresponding decrease of up to 15 percent of the quantity of hydroelectric power produced in the region.

New York has already adopted, or is in the process of adopting, several measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions. However, scientists predict that to avoid the worst effects of climate change, emissions must be reduced by up to 85 percent. In this report, Environmental Advocates presents a set of recommendations that would help reduce New York's global warming emissions. The complete recommendations are listed in the report. Sample recommendations include:

• establishing more aggressive statewide greenhouse gas emissions limits for all economic sectors;

• creating a statewide standard so that electricity demand growth is met by projects that increase New York’s overall energy efficiency;

• establishing a permanent Climate Change Commission responsible for establishing an emissions baseline, evaluating policies, and making recommendations for future actions;

• auctioning 100 percent of the carbon dioxide emission allowances as envisioned by RGGI, rather than the 25 percent required by the model rule, and using the proceeds to support programs that help stabilize and reduce energy demand.

The complete report is available at www.eany.org/gw/ForecastForNewYork.pdf.